Core Trends: Thermoforming Basic cov ntaub ntawv poob qis, thaum tshwj xeeb / cov khoom siv ruaj khov
I. General Polymers: Ample mov, nqi siab
PP (polypropylene)
Trend: Kev poob qis
Kev kwv yees: Tus nqi nruab nrab hauv 2026 xav tias yuav txo qis los ntawm 5-8% piv rau 2025
Tsav Yam Tseem Ceeb: Txuas ntxiv thoob ntiaj teb kev muaj peev xwm nthuav dav (tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau thaj tsam North American Gulf) I. Cov Khoom Siv Plastics:
HIPS (High Impact Polystyrene)
Trend: Volatile nrog downward bias
Kev kwv yees: Tus nqi nruab nrab txhua xyoo txo qis los ntawm 2-4%
Tsav Yam Tseem Ceeb: Muaj peev txheej ntawm styrene monomer, kev loj hlob ruaj khov hauv ntim xav tau
General -lub hom phiaj ABS
Trend: Divergent trends
Huab cua: General -cov nqi qib siab txo qis los ntawm 3-6%
Kev Tsav Tsheb: Cov khoom siv raw cov nqi dhau- dhau, tab sis kev loj hlob muaj peev xwm txwv tsis pub poob
II. Engineering Plastics thiab Cov Khoom Hloov Kho: Xav tau-tsav, muaj zog ua haujlwm
PC (Polycarbonate)
Txoj Kev: Siab -theem volatility
Huab cua: tswj cov qib siab tam sim no, volatility nce ± 15%
Tsav Tsheb: Kev them nyiaj yug BPA Upstream, tab sis lub peev xwm tshiab hauv Suav teb txo qhov siab
ABS / PC alloy
Trend: ruaj khov nrog me ntsis nce
Kev kwv yees: me ntsis nce ntawm 0-3%
Tsav Yam Tseem Ceeb: Kev xav tau ruaj khov los ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv tsheb thiab siab -cov khoom siv kawg
FR/ESD Qib Hloov Cov Khoom Siv
Trend: Clear upward trend
Kev kwv yees: nce 5-12%
Tsav Factors:
Explosive xav tau tshiab zog roj teeb Cheebtsam
Accelerated tsim cov ntaub ntawv chaw
Tus nqi nce ntawm cov nplaim hluav taws xob / cov tshuaj tiv thaiv kab mob
III. Saj zawg zog thiab tshwj xeeb zaj duab xis
PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride)
Txoj Kev: Yeej tiaj tus
Kev kwv yees: Ntau yam hloov pauv ± 3%
Tsav Tsheb: Muaj peev xwm txaus, kev xav tau ruaj khov los ntawm kev tsim kho thiab kev kho mob
PETG
Txoj Kev: Kev poob qis me ntsis
Kev kwv yees: Txo 2-5%
Kev Tsav Tsheb: Tau ntsib kev sib tw los ntawm rPET thiab bio- cov ntaub ntawv raws li
TPU/TPO
Trend: Nruab nrab nce
Kev kwv yees: nce 3-7%
Tsav Yam Tseem Ceeb: Lub teeb yuag ntawm lub tsheb sab hauv thiab txhim kho kev thov rau cov neeg siv khoom
V. Cov Lus Ceeb Toom Tseem Ceeb
Upside Risks
Lub zog poob siab: Soaring natural gas / hluav taws xob nqi (tshwj xeeb rau European thiab North American muaj peev xwm)
Kev cuam tshuam kev xa khoom: huab cua huab cua cuam tshuam rau cov nroj tsuag petrochemical hauv Gulf of Mexico
Kev lag luam teeb meem: CBAM (Carbon Ciam Teb Kho Mechanism) thawb cov nqi ntshuam
Downside Risks
1. Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb poob qis: Kev tsim khoom lag luam poob qis ntawm qhov kev cia siab
2. Tuam Tshoj lub peev xwm tso tawm: Cov khoom lag luam polymer feem ntau cuam tshuam rau lub lag luam thoob ntiaj teb
3. Kev siv thev naus laus zis: Kev hloov pauv sai ntawm cov khoom siv tshiab